The Black Swan, Jellyfish And Elephant: Three Metaphors Of The Unexpected

One of the great goals of science is to predict what will happen taking into account the value of certain variables. Not only is it enough to describe and understand why events happen, it is also necessary to be able to predict them. However, there are many events that are unexpected: they happen without anyone having predicted them. To better understand these cases, three metaphors of the unexpected are presented that try to remind us that the least expected can also happen.

Although metaphors are only literary figures, they are useful when it comes to understanding complex phenomena. The representation that metaphors make through the use of different objects or ideas, helps to understand, as well as visualize, what you want to explain. Consequently, the following three metaphors for the unexpected refer to three animals of a color that we would never expect to see.

On the other hand, metaphors also simplify phenomena. Also, this simplification is accompanied by the feeling of understanding, so they must be taken with caution. Metaphors for the unexpected help us understand events that we do not expect, but they also do so in a simplistic way and may not serve to represent all possible events.

The black swan

The black swan has been used as a recurring metaphor. This metaphor is associated with postpositivism, which indicates that the only thing we can do in social science is to predict probabilities. In other words, most, but not all, cases will be explained and predicted. There will always be cases that go beyond theories and predictions. Thus, black swans are one of these cases.

People thought that all swans were white. That black swans did not exist. Therefore, finding a black swan was considered impossible. Yet it happened. A black swan was found.

What seemed impossible was. This metaphor tells us that highly improbable events can happen. Also, these black swans have a very big impact. In the same way, the black swan metaphor implies that many events have no precedent to build on. If something has never happened it is very difficult for us to predict it.

A black swan was the 9/11 attacks in the United States. This terrorist attack was an event unlikely to occur. His prediction was very complicated because no one believed it was possible. However, it happened and it had a great impact on a global level.

The black jellyfish

Although the black swan is characterized as a very unlikely event, but with a high impact if it happens, the black jellyfish refers to other types of events. Thus, the black jellyfish is a species of jellyfish found in the Pacific Ocean. Despite the distinctive nature of these jellyfish and their abundance, they have only been officially described relatively recently. The black jellyfish is the largest invertebrate ever described in the 20th century.

In this way, the metaphor of the black jellyfish refers to some problems. Specifically, to the problems that we think we know and understand, but that turn out to be more complex and uncertain than we think. This misperception of these problems often has negative consequences.

The difference with the black swan is that the black jellyfish represents events that we do know about, but of which we underestimate their complexity. For example, Daesh, at first it was not taken into account despite knowing its nature, but surprised by its ability to conquer territory.

The black elephant

Black Diamond was an elephant from India. It was said to be the largest elephant in captivity. During his captivity, Black Diamond killed several people, making him too dangerous to remain in the circus. But they didn’t know what to do with him, until they finally killed him.

Thus, black elephants are a cross between a black swan and the “elephant in the room” (ignored or unnoticed truth), they are visible challenges for everyone, but that nobody wants to face. For example, the ghettoization situation in which people of different ethnicities or religions live in some cities.

Both the swan and the jellyfish and the black elephant are blind spots. All three refer to phenomena that we do not finish or do not want to fully understand. This misunderstanding can be caused by cognitive biases or unwillingness, but if they do occur, they come at a significant cost. Consequently, these three metaphors of the unexpected can serve to exemplify and catalog different events and issues.